The intuition vs. analysis conundrum
Let's say you've got a really good idea. And you've had good ideas before.
You show it to your colleagues. They analyze it. They tell you why it's not a good idea.
Do you go with your instinct? Is your gut reaction to be trusted? After all, you've been right before. After all, you've been wrong before.
The analysis, based on past events, certainly seems sound. But your instincts are the only way you're going to do something unsound.
And unsound things become hits. Sound ones never do.
Who Moved My Cheese was unsound. So was publishing a book two years after you started blogging every chapter. So was an expensive, unfitted, almost untailored suit from Milan. So was running against Joe Lieberman.
The challenge is not to somehow persuade those in search of soundness to change their minds. The challenge is to do enough of a gut check to decide whether you should defend your instinct. And then do it.