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What happens to radio?

I did an interview with Mark Ramsey about the future of radio. Here's a little squib about the four ways I think the medium might go:

Scenario A: Everyone has Wi-Fi or WiMAX in their car. Once that happens, we're not talking about 200 XM radio stations, we're talking about 2 million, and all bets are off.

Scenario B: The aftermarket people get very focused on putting hard drives and iPod docks in cars. If that happens, again, radio is in trouble, because people are gonna bring their own pre- recorded content with them.

Scenario C: We end up in the satellite world, they figure out how to get a little bit more content through those pipes and we end up with 300 or 400 channels in the car. I had XM radio for a year to check it out. What's interesting is it doesn't matter how many stations there are, sooner or later you end up with four. And so the thing is, what do you have to do to be one of the four, and how do you live in a world where you've got hundreds of competitors a click away, but if you spend all your time not offending anybody, you'll never get anybody.

Scenario D: A hybrid of what we've got now: Traditional analog radio combined with HD combined with satellite. This scenario will, I think, not make anybody particularly happy, because the advertisers are going to be faced with an increasingly splintered audience that's hard to address, and as a result, it will be hard for that local car dealership or that politician to do a sensible radio buy.


The idea of radio... audio determined by an external editor... isn't going away any time soon. People like it.

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Listed below are links to weblogs that reference What happens to radio?:

» The future of radio? from Right-Half Chow
I'm not what you would call a radio fan, even before iPod and other music players I had the tendency to carry enough music with me, just to avoid having to listen to anyone else dictating what I should be [Read More]

» Radio and the Long Tail from AiAlone.com
Seth Godin has caught my eye today. First with his washing machine/good enough post. Now with his discussion of traditional radio and what the future has in store for it. This post crosses a couple of threads for me. I love music. I listen to the ... [Read More]

» Radio Advertising and The Future of Radio from Radio Sage Blog
Seth Godin, world famous business author and blogger, has laid out his predictions for what'll happen to, for, or with radio in the future. My bet is that it'll be closest to either Scenario A or D. And it may... [Read More]

» An advert free radio and TV? from branding confessions
Advertisers consider this: Your target market drives to work, listening to his own content on the car radio - fed from his iPod. At work he catches up on the days news over the internet. When he gets home he turns on his Foxtel set-top box with built i... [Read More]

» On the Future of Radio from ataridemocrat
Much ink is spilled about the future of TV, but what about radio, the oft-forgotten step-child of the political media world? Satellite radio, iPods, Wi-Max and a variety of other trends could spell the end of radio as we know it long before TV bites t... [Read More]

» Radio is Dead! Long Live Radio! from Ad Modum Digirati
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» Future Of Radio from Perceptric Forum
Seth Godin did an interesting piece about the future of radio.I happen to believe that radio is one of the best media ever invented. But it is also largely its o... [Read More]

» What happens to TV? from Animas Weblog
These two posts from Battelle (advertising is content) and Godin (what happens to radio) intersect with a tangent from this post of mine about Google competing for the TV ad market. I refer to the fact that IPTV will come along at some point an... [Read More]

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